Browsing by Author "Gemicioglu, Selcuk"

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Do Natural Resources Lead To a Curse or Blessing in Terms of Income Inequality
(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2024) Gemicioglu, Selcuk; Soyhan, Sinem; Mollavelioglu, M. Sukru
This study examines the effects of the revenues generated by the extraction of natural resource reserves on income distribution in countries with natural resource reserves. The theoretical underpinning is based on the view that natural resources, which are defined in the literature as the natural resources curse, cause many adverse macroeconomic and political effects on countries' natural resource discoveries and revenues from extracted natural resources. The study aims to investigate whether natural resources have adverse effects on income inequality for countries with higher revenues of natural resources and abundant natural resources. For this purpose, we perform estimations using the system GMM estimator for low-income, lower-middle-income and natural resources-rich countries in the period 2009-2019. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between natural resource rent and income inequality. In other words, natural resource rent has a cursing effect up to a threshold, then it has a blessing effect on income inequality. We also find an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and income inequality. Additionally, the rule of law has a negative effect on income inequality.
Indirect Tax Burden and Progressivity of Indirect Taxes in Turkey
(Sosyoekonomi Soc, 2023) Akkoc, Ugur; Gemicioglu, Selcuk; Kizilirmak, Burca
This study has two main aims. The first is calculating the share of indirect taxes in household income and expenditures in Turkey. The second aim is to measure the progressivity of Value Added Tax (VAT) and Special Consumption Tax (SCT) using expenditure and income methods. The analyses were carried out using the data obtained from the Household Budget Surveys for 2004-2019 by the Turkish Statistical Institute. The progressivity of VAT and SCT was measured with the Kakwani progressivity index. The findings show that VAT is progressive according to the expenditure method and regressive according to the income method. The SCT is progressive according to both methods.
Relative Contributions of Indirect Taxes and Inflation on Inequality: What Does the Turkish Data Reveal
(Wiley, 2024) Gemicioglu, Selcuk; Kizilirmak, Burca; Akkoc, Ugur
One way inflation affects consumption inequality is through its varying impact on the purchasing power of different households. Indirect taxes, which affect commodity price levels, are another effective factor influencing consumption inequality. Turkey is a highly unequal country with a long history of high inflation. Moreover, indirect taxes have been used frequently as a policy tool in the last decades. This study develops a novel approach to examining the relative contributions of household inflation rates and indirect tax changes to real consumption inequality and applies it to the case of Turkey. The analysis is carried out using both household-level data and artificial panel data created to apply the Shapley and Owen decomposition methods. The findings roughly can be summarized in two points. First, while nominal consumption during the 2003-2019 period became more equal, real consumption inequality increased as a result of price changes during that time. Variations in household inflation rates are the primary source of increased inequality. Second, changes in indirect taxes account for 31% to 68% of the unequalizing effect of price changes, depending on the method used. Results imply that monetary and indirect tax policy mix have been in favor of the rich in this period.
Unemployment Persistence in the Turkish Labor Market
(Istanbul Univ, 2023) Gemicioglu, Selcuk; Sahin, Hasan
The aim of this study is to investigate the existence of unemployment persistence in the Turkish labor market. In this regard, the existence and degree of genuine state dependence was analyzed using the data obtained from the 2013-2016 Survey on Income and Living Conditions and Household Labor Force Survey. The dynamic random effects probit model estimation results showed that there is genuine state dependence in the Turkish labor market. In other words, after controlling for observed and unobserved heterogeneity and initial conditions, past unemployment experiences increased the probability of being unemployed in the future. In addition, the marginal effect of genuine state dependence was found to be higher for the unemployed individuals than for the individuals employed in the initial period. As one's education level increases, the likelihood of being jobless declines, however, men are more likely than women to do so. Age, gender, education level, marital status, and the number of household employees all have an impact on the likelihood of being unemployed. Demand-side factors such as the unemployment rate and growth rate of employment do not affect the probability of remaining unemployed.