Browsing by Author "Guncan, Ali"

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Advances in Theory, Data Analysis, and Application of the Age-Stage, Two-Sex Life Table for Demographic Research, Biological Control, and Pest Management
(E Schweizerbartsche verlagsbuchhandlung, 2023) Chi, Hsin; Kavousi, Aurang; Gharekhani, Gholamhossein; Atlihan, Remzi; Ozgokce, Mehmet Salih; Guncan, Ali; Desneux, Nicolas
This paper reviews and introduces innovative research pertaining to the age-stage, two-sex life table. The main topics discussed are: (1) Analysis of data involving group-reared life table studies. We address the rationale behind the data analysis used when constructing a group-reared life table. Proper analysis of grouped-reared life table data enables the collection of realistic and applicable data for ecological studies, devising efficient mass-rearing programs and formulating pest management routines using time-and labor-saving group-rearing methods. (2) The bootstrap-match technique. This novel technique is applicable to those instances when constructing a complete life table involves collecting the immature independently from the adult data. (3) Application of the set theory in life table research. This procedure enables a mathematical description of the population structure and bootstrap samples. (4) Application of the multinomial theorem. Using the multinomial theorem enables calculation of the exact probability of bootstrap samples. (5) Inclusion of infertile bootstrap samples. Because it is impossible to calculate the intrinsic rates of increase for infertile samples, they are normally omitted in life table analysis. Inclusion of these infertile bootstrap samples produces an unbiased life table analysis. (6) The Cartesian product. The Cartesian product of two sets produces the complete coverage of all possible differences. We compared the paired bootstrap test, the Cartesian paired test based on bootstrap results, and the Cartesian paired test based on the multinomial theorem. (7) Integration of life table data with predation data. This procedure, which is especially relevant to biological control programs, enables a comprehensive study of the predator-prey relationship. (8) Computer simulation based on life tables. Population projection based on the age-stage, two-sex life table not only provides the means to predict the dynamics of stage structures of a given pest population, but also provides an insight into the dynamics of predation capacity of the predator population. (9) Problems in life table research. Each of the subjects discussed is crucial for the theoretical advancement and practical applications of scientific demographic research.
Bias Introduced by the Simplified Method for the Estimation of the Intrinsic Rate of Increase of Aphid Populations: a Meta-Analysis
(E Schweizerbartsche verlagsbuchhandlung, 2021) Saska, Pavel; Ozgokce, Mehmet Salih; Skuhrovec, Jiri; Atlihan, Remzi; Guncan, Ali; Zamani, Abbas Ali; Tuan, Shu-Jen
The intrinsic rate of increase, denoted as r or r(m), describes the rate of population growth. Simplified formulas for estimating r have been developed to reduce labour and avoid complicated computations. The aim of this paper was to demonstrate and quantify the systematic bias in estimates of the intrinsic rate of increase provided by the simplified method (Wyatt & White 1977) compared to the age-stage, two-sex life table theory using a set of independently collected aphid life tables and meta-analytical approaches. The factors behind the variation in the bias across the studies were also explored. We analysed 112 aphid life tables from 24 independent experiments. The simplified method provided significantly greater estimates of the intrinsic rate of increase than the age-stage, two-sex life table theory in 98 out of 112 life table studies, and the difference was, on average, 27.6 % (95% CI: 24.0-31.3 %). The magnitude of the log-ratio of the two approaches was positively influenced by the pre-reproduction mortality and by variations in the duration of the total pre-reproduction period within a cohort. We concluded that although using simplified methods may be appealing because it saves time during the data collection phase and analysis, researchers, reviewers and journal editors should critically evaluate whether using the simplified method(s) is worthwhile, taking into account that such data are inaccurate and potentially lead to false conclusions. Current advances in the life-table theory and computer capacity have eliminated the need for simplified methods in population ecology.
Demographic Characteristics of Paracoccus Marginatus on Papaya Fruit and Potato Tubers With an Innovative Method for Efficient Application of the Multinomial Theorem in Demographic Research
(E Schweizerbartsche verlagsbuchhandlung, 2024) Lin, Ling-Hong; Shi, Meng-Zhu; Chi, Hsin; Guncan, Ali; Ozgokce, Mehmet Salih; Atlihan, Remzi; Fu, Jian-Wei
The life table data of Paracoccus marginatus Williams and Granara de Willink reared on potato tubers and papaya fruit were collected and analyzed using the age-stage, two-sex life table. The preadult survival rate (sa = 0.61) and female adult longevity (28.6 d) on papaya fruit were significantly higher than in individuals reared on potato tubers (sa = 0.38 and 18.8 d). The female adult longevity was significantly longer than it was in male adults on both hosts. The net reproductive rate (R0 = 206.72 offspring/individual), intrinsic rate of increase (r = 0.1745 d-1) and finite rate of increase (lambda = 1.1912 d-1) of P. marginatus were significantly higher on papaya fruit than they were on potato tubers (R0 = 37.29 offspring/ individual, r = 0.1138 d-1, lambda = 1.1221 d-1). Population projection indicated that the total population size of P. marginatus on papaya fruit could reach 146,826 individuals after 60 days, while the total population size of P. marginatus on potato tubers would only be 3,619 individuals. This study showed that P. marginatus had a higher fitness on papaya fruit than on potato tubers. We also discuss an innovative method for applying the multinomial theorem in demographic analysis based on the multinomial coefficients and individual compositions. To facilitate the application of the multinomial theorem in life table research including both fertile and infertile bootstrap samples, we calculated the exact multinomial coefficients for all possible individual compositions. A file for a sample size of 15 individuals (file size 4.07 GB) is made available for public access at DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.11257789.
Demography and Mass-Rearing Harmonia Dimidiata (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) Using Aphis Gossypii (Hemiptera: Aphididae) and Eggs of Bactrocera Dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)
(Oxford Univ Press inc, 2018) Yu, Jih-Zu; Chen, Bing Huei; Guncan, Ali; Atlihan, Remzi; Gokce, Ayhan; Smith, Cecil L.; Chi, Hsin
We compared rearing Harmonia dimidiata (F.) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) on four combinations of Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae), and eggs of Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel (Diptera: Tephritidae), using the age-stage, two-sex life table. The four combinations were: both larvae and adults were reared on aphids; larvae were reared on aphids and adults were reared on fresh fruit fly eggs; larvae were reared on lyophilized fruit fly eggs and adults were reared on aphids; and larvae were reared on lyophilized eggs and adults were reared on fresh eggs. The highest intrinsic rate of increase (r = 0.1125 d(-1)) and net reproductive rate (R-0 = 260.7 offspring) were observed when both larval and adult stages of H. dimidiata were reared on A. gossypii. When B. dorsalis eggs were used as rearing media for larvae, adults, or both, the values of r and R-0 were significantly decreased. The lowest values (r = 0.0615 d-1 and R-0 = 38.6 offspring) were observed when both larvae and adults were reared entirely on B. dorsalis eggs. Despite the lower r and R-0 values, our results showed that B. dorsalis eggs could be considered as an adequate, less expensive alternative diet for rearing H. dimidiata because of the time and labor savings resulting from the ease of preparation and the ability to store the eggs for timely usage. The mass-rearing analysis showed that the most economical rearing system was to rear larvae on A. gossypii and adults on B. dorsalis eggs.
Innovative Application of Set Theory, Cartesian Product, and Multinomial Theorem in Demographic Research
(E Schweizerbartsche verlagsbuchhandlung, 2022) Chi, Hsin; Kara, Hilmi; Ozgokce, Mehmet Salih; Atlihan, Remzi; Guncan, Ali; Risvanli, Mehmet Ramazan
The bootstrap technique has been widely used to estimate the variances, standard errors, and confidence intervals (CI) of life table parameters, while the paired bootstrap test has been used to compare life table parameters between treatments by assessing the CI of differences. Although a great number of resamplings (B = 1,000 similar to 100,000) has been suggested for the application of the bootstrap technique, each computer simulation will generate different results because the bootstrap sampling with replacement is based on a stochastic process. In order to determine the theoretical and true confidence intervals of population parameters, and thereby, achieve an accurate assessment of differences between treatments, we introduce an innovative application of set theory, Cartesian product, and multinomial theorem for a mathematical formulation of demographic analysis. Moreover, when a bootstrap sample is composed of individuals that cannot produce offspring (i.e., an infertile bootstrap sample), the intrinsic rate of increase (r) and finite rate of increase (lambda) cannot be calculated. Omitting these infertile bootstrap samples will result in biased estimates. This problem of infertile bootstrap samples in demographic research has not been resolved. The integrated application of the set theory, Cartesian products, and multinomial theorem enables the detection of all possible combinations of bootstrap samples, the true CIs of population parameters, and the CIs of differences between treatments; furthermore, the probabilities of both fertile and infertile bootstrap samples can also be calculated. The life table data of the well-known cosmopolitan pest, Myzus persicae (Sulzer) (Hemiptera: Aphididac), were collected and used as examples.
Integrating Demography, Predation Rate, and Computer Simulation for Evaluation of Orius Strigicollis as Biological Control Agent Against Frankliniella Intonsa
(E Schweizerbartsche verlagsbuchhandlung, 2021) Ding, Han-Yan; Lin, Ya-Ying; Tuan, Shu-Jen; Tang, Li-Cheng; Chi, Hsin; Atlihan, Remzi; Guncan, Ali
Erankliniella intonsa (Trybom) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) is an important pest of numerous horticultural and agricultural crops in Taiwan. Orius strigicollis (Poppius) (Hemiptera: Anthocoridae) is a predator with high predation capacity against many pests of legumes and flowers. We used the age-stage, two-sex life table method to integrate the life table data with the predation rate of O. strigicollis fed on F. intonsa. The preadult duration, adult longevity, net reproductive rate, intrinsic rate of increase, and finite rate of increase for O. strigicollis were 13.6 d, 12.5 d, 18.8 offspring/individual, 0.1437 d(-1), and 1.1546 d(-1), respectively. The total predation of O. strigicollis during their preadult and adult stages was 60.4 and 107.3 thrips, respectively. The net predation rate was 101 prey/individual. To demonstrate the effect of releasing predators of different stages on the population growth and predation capacity, we used population projection to evaluate the predation potential of O. strigicollis, and the uncertainty of predation potential was determined by using the life tables from the 0.025th, and 0.975th, bootstrap percentiles of the finite rate of increase. Releasing third instars or adults of O. strigicollis can effectively control the pest sooner than releasing O. strigicollis eggs. In biological control, both predator and prey populations are age-stage-structured and (in most instances) individuals of both sexes are present. It is imperative that the age-stage, two-sex life table be used to precisely incorporate the variability that occurs in the developmental rate, stage differentiation, survival rates, and predation rates among individuals and between sexes. Our results demonstrate that integrating life table and predation rate data generated by using the age-stage, two-sex life table is an important technique for improving biological control programs by refining the timing and estimating the release of natural enemies. Moreover, by using the multinomial theorem, we demonstrated that a large resampling (B =100,000) is necessary to obtain more precise estimates of population parameters in applications of the bootstrap technique.
Twosex-Mschart: the Key Tool for Life Table Research and Education
(E Schweizerbartsche verlagsbuchhandlung, 2022) Chi, Hsin; Guncan, Ali; Kavousi, Aurang; Gharakhani, Gholamhossein; Atlihan, Remzi; Ozgokce, Mehmet Salih; Roya, Taghizadeh
Short note on TWOSEX-MSChart: the key tool for life table research and education.