Determination of the Earthquake Hazard and Risk Analysis of Van Province Using Geographic Information System Methods: the Case of Cumhuriyet Neighborhood
Abstract
Bu çalışma, Van ili'nin jeolojik ve sismolojik veriler ile deprem tehlikesi bakımından değerlendirilmesini ve Van ili İpekyolu İlçesi Cumhuriyet Mahallesi'nin deprem risk analizini konu almaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında deprem tehlike değerlendirilmesi için tarihsel dönem depremler, aletsel dönem depremler, zemin sınıflaması ve aktif fay kriterleri kullanılmıştır. Cumhuriyet Mahallesi deprem risk değerlendirilmesi için ise yapı kat adedi, yapı niteliği, zemin sınıflaması ve yapının hangi deprem yönetmeliğine göre yapıldığı kriterleri kullanılmıştır. Araştırmanın birinci safhasında kullanılan kriterler literatür temelli analitik hiyerarşik süreç ile önem derecesine göre ağırlıklandırılmıştır. Araştırmanın ikinci safhasında Cumhuriyet Mahallesi deprem risk değerlendirmesi için kullanılan kriterler AHP süreci ile ağırlıklandırılarak CBS tabanlı risk haritası üretilmiştir. Tez çalışması sonucunda; Van ilinin kuzeyinde yer alan Erciş ve Muradiye ilçelerinin bazı bölgeleri ve doğusunda kalan Özalp ve Saray İlçelerinin bazı mahalleleri çok yüksek tehlike sınıfı içinde kalmaktadır. Çaldıran, Edremit, Başkale, İpekyolu ve Tuşba ilçelerinin bazı mahalleleri yüksek tehlike sınıfında yer almaktayken, Bahçesaray ve Çatak ilçelerinin düşük ve çok düşük tehlike sınıfı içerisinde yer aldığı görülmektedir. Cumhuriyet Mahallesinde yer alan 402 adet yapının; 7 adedi çok yüksek risk sınıfında, 17 adedi yüksek risk sınıfında geriye kalan 378 adet yapı ise orta, düşük ve çok düşük risk sınıfında yer almaktadır. Modern afet yönetimi kapsamında riski sıfıra indirgemek imkansızdır. Fakat risk yönetimi ile risk unsurunun direnç derecesi arttırılabilir. Gerçekleştirilen bu tez çalışması tehlike ve risk unsurunu derecelendirmektedir. Bu kapsamda yapı stoğunun dirençli hale getirilmesi çalışmalarında altlık oluşturması bakımından oldukça önemlidir.
This study encompasses both the seismic hazard analysis of Van Province based on geological data and the seismic risk assessment of Cumhuriyet Neighborhood, located in the İpekyolu District of Van Province. Within the scope of the study, historical earthquakes, instrumental period earthquakes, soil classification, and active fault data were utilized as primary criteria for the seismic hazard assessment. For the seismic risk assessment of Cumhuriyet Neighborhood, the criteria employed included building story number, building type, soil classification, and the seismic code under which the building was constructed. In the first phase of the research, the selected criteria were weighted according to their relative importance using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), based on a comprehensive review of relevant scientific literature. In the second phase, the criteria used for the seismic risk assessment of Cumhuriyet Neighborhood were also weighted through the AHP method, and subsequently, a GIS-based seismic risk map was generated. The results of the thesis indicate that certain areas within the northern districts of Erciş and Muradiye, as well as some neighborhoods in the eastern districts of Özalp and Saray, fall within the very high seismic hazard zone. Moreover, specific neighborhoods in the districts of Çaldıran, Edremit, Başkale, İpekyolu, and Tuşba are classified within the high hazard zone, while Bahçesaray and Çatak districts are located within the low and very low hazard zones. Regarding the seismic risk assessment of Cumhuriyet Neighborhood, it was found that out of a total of 402 buildings, 7 buildings fall within the very high-risk class, 17 buildings within the high-risk class, and the remaining 378 buildings are classified within medium, low, and very low-risk classes. In the context of modern disaster management, it is acknowledged that completely eliminating seismic risk is impossible. However, through effective risk management strategies, the resilience of risk elements can be significantly enhanced. In this regard, this thesis study offers a systematic classification of both seismic hazard and seismic risk components, and thus, holds significant value for decision-makers in planning and implementing strategies aimed at enhancing the resilience of the existing building stock.
This study encompasses both the seismic hazard analysis of Van Province based on geological data and the seismic risk assessment of Cumhuriyet Neighborhood, located in the İpekyolu District of Van Province. Within the scope of the study, historical earthquakes, instrumental period earthquakes, soil classification, and active fault data were utilized as primary criteria for the seismic hazard assessment. For the seismic risk assessment of Cumhuriyet Neighborhood, the criteria employed included building story number, building type, soil classification, and the seismic code under which the building was constructed. In the first phase of the research, the selected criteria were weighted according to their relative importance using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), based on a comprehensive review of relevant scientific literature. In the second phase, the criteria used for the seismic risk assessment of Cumhuriyet Neighborhood were also weighted through the AHP method, and subsequently, a GIS-based seismic risk map was generated. The results of the thesis indicate that certain areas within the northern districts of Erciş and Muradiye, as well as some neighborhoods in the eastern districts of Özalp and Saray, fall within the very high seismic hazard zone. Moreover, specific neighborhoods in the districts of Çaldıran, Edremit, Başkale, İpekyolu, and Tuşba are classified within the high hazard zone, while Bahçesaray and Çatak districts are located within the low and very low hazard zones. Regarding the seismic risk assessment of Cumhuriyet Neighborhood, it was found that out of a total of 402 buildings, 7 buildings fall within the very high-risk class, 17 buildings within the high-risk class, and the remaining 378 buildings are classified within medium, low, and very low-risk classes. In the context of modern disaster management, it is acknowledged that completely eliminating seismic risk is impossible. However, through effective risk management strategies, the resilience of risk elements can be significantly enhanced. In this regard, this thesis study offers a systematic classification of both seismic hazard and seismic risk components, and thus, holds significant value for decision-makers in planning and implementing strategies aimed at enhancing the resilience of the existing building stock.
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Jeoloji Mühendisliği, Geological Engineering
Turkish CoHE Thesis Center URL
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