The Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Agricultural Investments

Abstract

Purpose: The agricultural sector is strategically important for sustainable development and food security. However, climate change and the increasing physical and political uncertainties that come with it put investments in this sector at risk. This study examines the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and agricultural investments in the USA from 1995-2022. Design/Methodology/Approach: The nonlinear ARDL method and asymmetric causality test are used to analyze the relationships between climate policy uncertainty and agricultural investments. Nonlinear methods allow us to measure asymmetric effects on the dependent variable by evaluating the positive and negative changes of the explanatory variables separately. Findings: According to the NARDL model results, increases in climate policy uncertainty reduce agricultural investments in the long run. The asymmetric causality test provides additional evidence for the asymmetric relationships identified by the NARDL model. There is a statistically significant asymmetric causality from the positive shock of climate policy uncertainty to the negative shock of agricultural investments. Originality/Value: This study fills the gap in the literature by examining the impact of climate policy uncertainty on investments in the agricultural sector. This provides a new perspective to understand the long-term consequences of this relationship in a highly climate-sensitive area such as the agricultural sector. © 2025, Turkish Journal of Agricultural Economics. All rights reserved.