The Effect of Temperature on the Suicide Rates in Turkey: A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: Rising ambient temperature is increasingly recognized as a potential risk factor for suicide, yet long -term, nationwide evidence from developing countries remains limited. This study investigates the association between temperature and suic ide rates in Turkey over a 24-year period. Methods: Monthly suicide data were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (2000 –2023), while average temperature was derived from the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Mov ing Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX) model accounted for seasonality, autocorrelation, and temperature as a covariate. Results: All three SARIMAX models showed a statistically significant positive relationship between temperature and suicide rat es. For each 1°C increase, the suicide rate rose by 0.0038 per 100,000 population in the total group, 0.0043 per 100,000 among males, and 0.0025 per 100,000 among females. Model diagnostics (e.g., Ljung-Box, Jarque-Bera) suggested good overall fit. Despite limitations such as the lack of daily data and additional covariates, these findings underscore the robust link between ambient temperature and suici de. Discussion and Conclusion: This nationwide analysis highlights temperature as an important environment al factor influencing suicide. In light of climate change, public health strategies should consider the implications of rising temperatures. Future work inc orporating more covariates and higher-resolution data could further elucidate the complex relationsh ip between temperature and suicidal behavior.