Mapping Regional Forest Fire Probability Using Artificial Neural Network Model in a Mediterranean Forest Ecosystem

Abstract

Forest fires are one of the most important factors in environmental risk assessment and it is the main cause of forest destruction in the Mediterranean region. Forestlands have a number of known benefits such as decreasing soil erosion, containing wild life habitats, etc. Additionally, forests are also important player in carbon cycle and decreasing the climate change impacts. This paper discusses forest fire probability mapping of a Mediterranean forestland using a multiple data assessment technique. An artificial neural network (ANN) method was used to map forest fire probability in Upper Seyhan Basin (USB) in Turkey. Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) approach based on back propagation algorithm was applied in respect to physical, anthropogenic, climate and fire occurrence datasets. Result was validated using relative operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Coefficient of accuracy of the MLP was 0.83. Landscape features input to the model were assessed statistically to identify the most descriptive factors on forest fire probability mapping using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Landscape features like elevation (R = -0.43), tree cover (R = 0.93) and temperature (R = 0.42) were strongly correlated with forest fire probability in the USB region.