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Mathematical Analysis of Stochastic Epidemic Model of Mers-Corona & Application of Ergodic Theory

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Date

2023

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Elsevier

Abstract

The "Middle East Respiratory" (MERS-Cov) is among the world's dangerous diseases that still exist. Presently it is a threat to Arab countries, but it is a horrible prediction that it may propagate like COVID-19. In this article, a stochastic version of the epidemic model, MERS-Cov, is presented. Initially, a mathematical form is given to the dynamics of the disease while incorporating some unpredictable factors. The study of the underlying model shows the existence of positive global solution. Formulating appropriate Lyapunov functionals, the paper will also explore parametric conditions which will lead to the extinction of the disease from a community. Moreover, to reveal that the infection will persist, ergodic stationary distribution will be carried out. It will also be shown that a threshold quantity exists, which will determine some essential parameters for exploring other dynamical aspects of the main model. With the addition of some examples, the underlying stochastic model of MERS-Cov will be studied graphically for more illustration.(c) 2022 International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (IMACS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Description

Tunc, Osman/0000-0003-2965-4561; Madi, Elissa Nadia/0000-0001-5557-2231; Ur Rahman, Ghaus/0000-0002-3168-181X; Hussain, Shah/0000-0003-4786-2938; Khan, Hasib/0000-0002-7186-8435

Keywords

Mers-Corona Virus, Ergodic Theory, Disease Persistat, Disease Extinction, Stability

Turkish CoHE Thesis Center URL

WoS Q

Q1

Scopus Q

Q1

Source

Volume

207

Issue

Start Page

130

End Page

150